In this match of ATP Finals Rafael Nadal will play against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The have played five time in the past against each other. Rafael managed to win in 5 matches. I consider Rafa to be the favorite here also.
In order to get to the semi finals of the tournament Rafa needs a win here. Rafa played a great first round match against Rublev. Then against Thiem he lost in tight match. In that match both players were playing some good tennis and both had their chances but Austrian won in the end.
Last year Champion also has his chances. He had to dig deep to defeat Rublev. Rublev had match point in the third set but failed to convert it and Greek won in the end. If he wants to defeat Rafa here, Tsitsipas need to be much more consistent. His serve has not been that weapon he needs it to be. He needs to be more aggressive and attack Rafa.
Rafa played great tennis against Thiem and still lost. He lost all points who were of huge importance.
I think he will bounce back and win here. Still it will not be easy, because Tsitsipas is always dangreous. He won the title here last year and knows how to play in matches like this one. It’s win or go home. Greek player will give his 100% but it still will not be enough.
If Rafa produces the tennis he played in first two round he should be able to win.